W-C-S FOR IRAQ
Many of us are considering the worst case outline on the situation existing in Iraq this week concerning the turnover of power set for June 30th.
It is not a pleasant thing to think about but the pace and degree of changes has been accelerated in recent weeks and such changes have created a potential for dissent in some areas which did exist to such a degree prior to such modifications.
The decision to go with June 30th may prove to have been unwise. It came about as a result of having mentioned that date as a possible time for such a change over of power to Iraqi rule. American Liberals and pacifist harped on the date until it became established as the time to be set and Bush supporter dare not change it in spite of modifications having taken place. It is held to be a political campaign tool now and for Bush to change it now would be to make it seem to be a sign of weakness and indecision on his part.
If the first days of Iraqi rule prove to be excessively violent the American people may well return to backing Bush; and a strong military. If such possible violence mild or widely scattered through ethnic groups Iraq, it will prove to be far easier and tempting for exploitation by Kerry followers and those favoring weaker military establishments.
At the moment we are in a "wait and see"phase. Few would care to make exact predictions of just how the first day will go when Iraq takes over control of the nation on its own - with, of course the untested and untried mix of US/UN control.
If the change is a moderate success we can expect interest from France, Germany, Russia and other fringe supporters/critics to become concerned about getting what they consider to be their share of return from Iraq. They can cite tremendous debts owed to them by the previous Iraqi government and insist that they have a right to receive payments on those debt from the new nation's oil and other sources of wealth. The role of the United nations is questionable, too. Fifty-nine nations of the U are said to be automatically opposed to any United States actions whatsoever, so it proves difficult for governing councils to come up with any things will keep those fifty-nine members placated. Only count on UN for anything other than platitudes and vague promises of potential paradise somewhere ahead.
Next week we will know, of course, if July 4th is to be a time of special meaning for the Iraqi people. By that time we should know what their immediate suture will hold.
.A..L.M. june 25, 2004 [000wds]
