EASY DOES IT
Events are moving too fast in the Mid-East for some of us to keep in touch.
Certainly, by now, there are other members of the U.N. who realize how meaningless the organization has become and who might wish to be associated in some way with the efforts bring made to give the organization new life..
Let's assume that the war continues to move with, at least, part of the alacrity with which it has thus far., Will more nations feel the might want to be a part of ridding the world of Saddam Hussein's crowd? If the war does not bog down at Baghdad which is entirely possible when urban fighting techniques become involved, some nations may be moved to some second thinking. They may see advantages in supporting the coalition. I find it interesting that Poland has taken a bit of affront as to the fact that some of her two hundred soldiers actively engaged in fighting in Iraq, have been identified by the media - both British and American - as being part of the U.S. Forces and actually pictured under an American flag rather than the Polish banner. If all goes well in the next few days, I think we will begin to see more such waffling, for “me too” positions.
Chiraq and Putin are both hesitating for economic reasons, I think. They have large financial holdings in Iraq and cannot be expected to drain it all away by erasing the Hussein people who are supposed to repay the money owed them for services rendered in the past few years. If they can avoid being seen to be openly if they can avoid doing so. If Saddam Hussein does well the first few weeks it will encourage our Clinton-era decision to “bring our boys home” as we did from Somalia and other touchy areas as soon as we had casualties.
Saddam seems to be counting on us doing the same thing again, give up and go home. Clinton followed whatever the popular polls reported and the noisy group wanted to bring the boys home. He did. I don't think Bush has that in mind at all..
Chiraq and Putin are paying attention to their investments in Iraq , and understandably so, to a degree. In time, I think, they will each find way to seek to reverse portions of their views, especially if there is any arrangement whereby their costs may be deflected a bit with revenue from captured oil fields , such as those at Basra, which will back in full production a month from now. Politicians are, however, thin-skinned in so many petty things, and either and both Putin or Chiraq , unknown entities as they both really are, may not react in what we call a “sensible” fashion.
Can such “deals” be set up? Would they be legal?
There is a new face on the Palestinian front, too. It appears that the Clown Prince of Palestine, one Yasher Arafat has, at long last, been downsized and some of his powers given to others. That change, alone, should spark some new interest in establishing peace and homeland security in the Holy Land area for both the Palestinians and the Jews.
Changes are taking effect quickly in so many areas in these post-Ides days of March, that the new month of April is almost sure to be a real quandary for decision makers. Unusual amounts of patience and understanding are going to be called for in the near future both from leadership of entire nations as well as from the average citizen thereof. Easy will do it best.
A.L.M. March 24, 2003 [c611wds]
.
